Re: vote quote of the day
Topics: Elections
08 Nov 1994
From: "DG Ervan Darnell"
>Really from: Dan Dees
>
>> Heard on the radio: "It doesn't matter if you vote Democrat or Republican,
>> so long as you vote."
>
>Do you believe in the "wasted vote"?:)
The mathematics of voting strategy are complex and I don't have a pat
answer. To start with it is a prisoner's dilemma. The opportunity cost of
the time you waste to vote is much greater than the expected value of your
vote (chance of effecting the outcome times perceived difference in
candidates). But the flip side of the coin is that if you don't vote, your
faction will never get its way. It is as if you have an agreement with a
large group of people to all do the saem thing even though individually it
is irrational (like agreeing not to cooperate in the prisoner's dilemma).
Given this is a philosophically hard problem, I won't presume to resolve it.
Groups which can deliver a large bloc of voters to either party are in the
best position to get what want, even without their own party. That is, they
can enforce the no-defect agreement.
"It's your duty to vote." Nonsense. It's your duty to vote intelligently.
If you are clueless, stay away. Putting on my objectivist hat for a moment,
I would go even further and say it is your duty to vote such that you steal
as little as possible from your fellow man, i.e. it is your duty to vote
Libertarian. Otherwise, stay home and do less damage.
Back to the real world, in a race like Hutchison versus Fisher (Texas senate
for those of you in another state), Hutchison is vastly superior to Fisher,
running about -2, on the Ervan scale, while Fisher is around -10 and
Blondeau (the LP candidate) +10. That would be a tough call if the polls
were close (Hutchison is way ahead and I can vote my conscience). On the
other hand, in the governor's race, Richards is -11, Bush is -10, and Ehlers
is +10. I'd rather go down fighting for the right thing than put my stamp
of approval on a slightly slower descent to hell.
The particulars of the governor's race are that both are running on who can
build the most prisons and lock up the most pot smokers. Bush wants to
divert more money from the usual Austin foolishness than Richards does to
achieve this goal. And, I'm supposed to be impressed? They both believe in
social planning by washing state money to the poorest neighborhoods. They
both believe in industrial planning by "targetting" certain industries.
So, back to your original question:
>Do you believe in the "wasted vote"?:)
I believe that no matter what you do, including deciding the outcome between
the two Republicrats, your vote is wasted.
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